The GOP primaries: Outsiders only

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Ron Paul is near the ideals of libertarianism, far from the neoconservatism that reign in the GOP hawks.

Newt Gingrich is Catholic, like Rick Santorum; and Mitt Ronmey is Mormon, like Jon Huntsman. These are not the most representative religions of "the Founding Fathers of the United States". Certainly, Mormons are protestants, but not the kind that symbolizes the concepts of the US conservative majority.

The last hope for neocons is Rick Perry, but although his religion, ideals and Texan bearing, he has low chances, according to polls; and even this guy has a negative point for neoconservatives: he was a Democrat until 1989, which is not what Republican hawks would call a perfect insignia of the GOP traditions.

The Democrats chose an outsider in 2008, but now is the turn for the Republicans. This time, McCain will not be in the race against Obama, so an outsider will face an outsider. Discontent with the status quo is still active in the 2012 US elections.

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Possible devaluation of the Venezuelan currency in 2012

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Every year of chavismo means for the Venezuelan currency, the bolivar, the risk of another maxi-devaluation. The two fixed exchange rates established by the government , CADIVI and SITME, are now at 4,3 and 5,3 per dollar respectively, with no probable modification to the CADIVI regime during this year due to the coming presidential elections.

But things are different for the SITME exchange. This system is used primary by corporations, and Chavez knows that the scarcity of basic products, caused in part for the severe foreign exchange restrictions,  is affecting his popularity. In a country so dependent of imports like Venezuela, if the government give more dollars to the private sector, entrepreneurs could increase the supply of milk, coffee, sugar, building materials, etc., which would alleviate the discontent in the lower classes.

For that reason, we expect the Venezuelan government to modify the SITME exchange rate to 6 or 7 per dollar this year, because at that rate, although higher is more accessible than the black market dollar, the government can offer more subsidized foreign currency to corporations, with electoral objectives, and can use the devaluation surplus in the presidential campaign via its social programs.

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Marxism inside the Socialism of the 21st century

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

In a forum entitled "Socialism: theory and history", dictated in Cumaná, Venezuela, we presented to the assistants information about the socialist ideology, making emphasis in the Venezuelan government's version of this political philosophy.

There, we described the Socialism of the 21st century as a disordered doctrine that mix elements from liberalism, democracy, populism and bolivarianism, but whose dominant influence is the classical Marxism. This argument was explained analyzing the regime's symbols (red color and five-pointed star), its class struggle rhetoric and economic statism, and considering the foreign policy of Miraflores of maintaining close relations with extreme leftist governments like Cuba.

Spain shifts to the right: Implications for Latin America

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Spain is one of the most influential nations in the Spanish-speaking America in every way (culture, politics, economics, fashion, etc..). Therefore, many of the things that happen in this country have implications for Latin American, and that the People's Party, the Spanish right, has won the parliamentary majority in the past elections is not going to be the exception. 

Among the most immediate impacts of this event for the region is that it denies the anti-capitalist propaganda of some local governments that indicates that the world's electorate is leaning to the left. 

On the other side is also the attitude that will set the new Spanish government toward the political systems of Cuba and Venezuela. Zapatero has always been criticized for being "complacent" with Chavez and Castro, and for using the lust for power of these rulers for the financial benefit of Spain, much like his "ideological cousin" Lula Da Silva. 

The government that will take office in Spain is one of the most conservative right in Europe. Rajoy and his party colleagues probably will not have the same goal of Zapatero to strengthen relationships with regimes that protect members of Spanish separatist groups, do not respect the property right, made flawed elections, and maintain large numbers of political prisoners and persecuted , which would endanger Spanish investment flows to the countries of the ALBA and Argentina, and would affect the political support given from Spain to many of the actions of these governments.

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The Copenhagen criteria and Latin America

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

One of the myths of the radical left in Latin America ensures that the model of State of politicians like Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro is the same that prevails in countries like Sweden, Denmark and Spain.

Ironically, in one of these societies that leftists in Latin America take as example of socialism, Denmark, the euro zone countries agreed to establish the general economic and political requirements to be met by any nation wishing to be part of the European Union.

According to "the Copenhagen criteria", politically, a country wishing to join the euro zone should be a democracy under the rule of law, that respects human rights and minorities. However, given that many of the citizens of Latin America still believes in the benefits of democracy despite the propaganda of the Cuban dictatorship, one of the most interesting aspects of "the Copenhagen criteria", if we relate it to Latin America, is what it says about the economic model.

In 1993, in Denmark, representatives of the European Union ruled that countries wishing to become members of this important group should be free market economies, with the ability to compete with the other forces of the Union.

Europe believes that the most appropriate political-economic configuration is the mix of democracy and free market; in contrast, the countries of the ALBA -Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Ecuador and Bolivia- propose autocratic schemes with socialized economies. Knowing who are on the best way is easy, but is hard to make Latin Americans inquire about the contradictions of the Cuban socialism, although none of them want to live in Havana, but in Madrid.

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Chile: Leftist indignation after 20 years?

Authors:
Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri and José Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

The left ruled in Chile for 20 consecutive years. During this period, the only time of great political instability occurred at the beginning of the government of Michelle Bachelet, in 2006, when strong student protests demanded improvements in public education, but the issue was quickly resolved. After that, streets returned to be quiet, the years went by and nobody seems to have noticed any problems with the educational system, as Bachelet leaves the presidency with almost 80% of popularity.

In 2010, a right-wing government comes to power, and in less than two years, the Chilean left begin to remember things they had forgotten for two decades.

In 20 years, the Chilean Concertación coalition had the power, resources and time to completely reform secondary and university education, do they forget that education could be free, and that private universities need better regulations?

We believe the government should provide free education at all levels, as has been proposed by the protesters in Chile; however, we do not share with them the idea of prohibiting profits from schools, universities or educational institutions of any kind. Removing the private sector from the educational system will only produce a third-world education, such as Cuba, or the other countries that have tested this model (without international recognition and Nobel prizes). And we also do not agree with breaking the democratic rules every time an ideology different from the left comes to power in Latin America. There are other ways to demand changes without promoting looting and violence, as when Lagos and Bachelet ruled Chile.

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Polls for Nicaragua's presidential election

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

The upcoming November 6 there will be general election in Nicaragua to choose the president and parliament, event in which the main Central American ally of the ALBA, Daniel Ortega, will seek re-election despite the fact that none of the 202 articles of the Constitution of that country states that a president may be reelected.

Although the incumbent president's desire to be reelected is not permitted by the laws, but by an unfounded interpretation made ​​by the Nicaraguan judiciary, the data produced by recent opinion surveys indicate that the favorite to succeed in these elections is Daniel Ortega, with 44% of voting intentions. He is followed by the opponents Fabio Gadea Mantilla, with 32%, and Arnoldo Alemán, with 13% . These figures come from the study conducted by Gallup in September this year.

Note that the opposition to Ortega's government could capitalize about 45% of the voting intention if it were not divided, which technically would tie the contest, however, has not yet been announced any alliance between these factions. Maybe they need to withstand 13 years of XXI Century Socialism, as Venezuelans, so that these parties understand that they themselves have no chance against the Neocastrista movement of Latin America.

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