The repression in Venezuela after the presidential election

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

In the protests following the Venezuelan presidential elections of April 14, we highlight some topics about the government procedures to maintain the order:

1. The authorities primarily sent paramilitary forces of the ruling party to combat the street demonstrations, making the violence worse.

2. The government arrested several protesters and entered into his homes without following legal procedures. Also, PSUV politicians exercised pressure on the independent press to retain the censorship, specially, this time, in TV stations like Televen and Globovision.

3. The official reports about the situation included murders from other cases (crime, personal problems, etc.) and unverified attacks to public services installations, with the aim of demonizing the protests.

These elements show a government that use methods not approved by the human rights conventions.  We have pronouncements of the international community supporting the election of the new Venezuela's president, Nicolas Maduro, but we haven't any mention of this illegal use of force and lies against civilians.

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"No immediate pro-democratic change in Venezuela"

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Politikantrop published and interview in which the Ukrainian political scientist and journalist, Viktor Kaspruk, spoke with us about the current Venezuelan politics. You can read the entire publication by clicking here.

These are some fragments of the interview:

"The Bolivarian model is autocratic. It is based in the personality cult of Hugo Chavez. There is nobody in the government with the leadership to carry on the “revolution”. That will be the principal obstacle in the futures plans of the chavista elite."

"Chavismo will continue censoring the independent media and nationalizing companies. Since its arrival, the Bolivarian Revolution has not stopped expropriations, and today, the remaining private media are exposed to content controls, fiscal pressures, foreign exchange privileges and other forms of covered coercion."

"We see no reasons to believe in an immediate pro-democratic change if Hugo Chavez leave the presidency. The Venezuelan economy is now growing more than 5%, the government party (PSUV) controls every public institution, the majority of newspapers, TV and radio stations have adopted an accommodative bias, and the most important opposition political parties are beginning to do the same."

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Chavista mismanagement: New source of risk for oil market

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Political instability in Middle East, a terrorist attack in Nigeria or Colombia, and a nationalization process in some part of Latin America are the classic problems that confront the international oil production.

However, in Venezuela, the Chavez government has introduced a new way to frequently disrupt the world oil supply: incompetence.

One day is an explosion in one of the Venezuelan oil company refineries because nobody noticed the high gas levels in the facilities, as happened recently in the Amuay installations.

Some days later, other PDVSA oil tank explodes because his managers took no precautions against thunderstorms, like lighting rod systems, as occurred in El Palito oil facility.

Since 2002, PDVSA has had at least 38 accidents related to incompetence: oil well fires (Cardon cases for example), explosions, tanker crashes, offshore platforms subsidences, workers' deaths due to faulty safety measures, etc.

The next time oil analysts search for risk in the international oil market, they should consider, too, which PDVSA workers are not qualified to do their job. Chavista mismanagement in the Venezuelan oil industry has not ended.

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Chavez near Pinochet's record

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

Augusto Pinochet was the head of the Chilean government for nearly 17 years, one of the longest authoritarian regimes in Latin America. The South American general surpassed in duration others of his class, as Marcos Perez Jimenez and Alberto Fujimori.

President Hugo Chavez's government has 14-year in power, after two presidential terms. If he wins a third time, his regime would add 72 months more, for a total of 20 years, with the potential to extend for longer, thanks to the constitutional reform promoted by Chavez to establish unlimited reelection.

A third term would put Chavez over Pinochet in the sub-continental ranking of authoritarian governments that have lasted longer. Since then, he would be following in the footsteps of Trujillo and Castro.

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Lower oil prices are good, but for whom?

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

"High oil prices pose a real threat to the global economic recovery", told the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently, but it depends on the point of view. From the industrialized countries to the Third World, oil is essential for development. The problem is that this natural resource is the main source of national income for the regions that have it, mostly poor countries.

The IEA aspiration of low oil prices means more poverty for nations like Ecuador or Nigeria, and more benefits for the Group of Eight and China, the world's largest importers. That is, funding the growth of rich nations, or the "global economy recovery", at the expense of countries with high rates of poverty.

At this moment, something that really would benefit the global economy recovery is to lower the interest rates applied to loans of developing countries. That could help a lot in Greece, Africa, Asia and Latin America.

In the same manner, the technology produced in the rich countries can be sell with discount to the Third World in an selfless gesture, pulling millions out of poverty. Ah, but that is a price for the global economy recovery that the most powerful nations are not willing to pay. It is most easy if the oil producers sell at lower prices.

Everybody wants a good price for his products, whether are natural resources, money or technology. In this oil price controversy, why not apply the same standards used in the technology and financial markets? We should let the supply/demand forces set a fair price to crude oil and its derivatives, without political pressures, as happens with industrialized countries' goods.

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From Günter Grass to "Ozzie" Guillen

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

We support the Jews people on many issues, and we are critics of the Cuban dictatorship and the Iranian regime. However, we are dissatisfied with the sanctions applied to Günter Grass and Oswaldo Guillen for their remarks about Middle East and Cuba.

How would we react if a Cuban baseball manager were punished for expressing his admiration for Barack Obama, or if an Iranian intellectual were isolated for his opinions?

What was the crime of these men? Grass' poem, "What must be said", is a civic approach on international politics. And the words of Guillen on Castro, for us, are the result of recklessness. We can not agree with these remarks, but that is no reason to apply sanctions to them.

It is unthinkable to suspend a person from his position as manager for expressing his political belief. It is extreme to pretend to withdraw the Nobel prize to Grass, and declare him persona non grata in Israel, for writing his views about Middle East peace. The message for our society is: when someone says something with which you disagree, punish him.

Accepting these sanctions weakens our critics against repressive political systems for their intolerance and persecution of dissent. Even if we assume they said misconceptions, what should we do? In democracy, having an opinion is not a crime. We can object any idea, but to apply penalties against those who think differently is uncivilized and backward.

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Polls for Venezuela's presidential election

Authors:
José Alberto López Rafaschieri and Luis Alberto López Rafaschieri
www.morochos.net

There will be presidential election in Venezuela on October 7. In this race, Hugo Chavez Frias, representing the incumbent party, will compete against Henrique Capriles Radonsky, the opposition's candidate.

The first public opinion reports about this election show that the current president has a considerable advantage over his opponent. According to a study of IVAD, mid-February, Chavez has 57.7% of voting intention, while Capriles holds 29,9%. Similar results found International Consulting Services, who said late February that Chavez has 58,7% and Capriles 25,7%.

In March, the measurements of Hinterlaces and Consultores 30.11 do not differ either from those presented above. Hinterlaces shows Chavez and Capriles with 52% and 34% respectively, and Consultores 30.11 with 57,5% and 26.6%.

It should be noted, however, that previous reports of these organizations have been wrong on several past elections. For example, IVAD and Datanálisis said the government was going to obtain more votes than the opposition in the parliamentary elections of 2010; and Hinterlaces claimed, also in 2010, that the PPT would become one of the main Venezuelan political parties, due to the high vote it would receive in the legislative elections.

03-22-2012: Consultores 21: Chávez 45%, Capriles 46%.

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